Submission to Climate Change Commission, HDL
To Whom it may concern,
My name is Hamish de Lautour and I am a sheep and beef farmer from Hawkes Bay.
I have diploma in Agriculture and a solid understanding of science and proper scientific method. I co-authored a research paper which was presented to the New Zealand Society For Animal Production (NZSAP) in 2010, titled A comparison of breeding values between sheep ranked for resistance and resilience to internal parasites possibly the only time a farmer has done so.
We run a flock of 12,000 sheep of which 5000 are fully genotyped on HD60k SNP, we sell genetics throughout the length of NZ also UK and France, so I have a very strong interest in the wellbeing and future of the sheep industry and have critically assessed all aspects of Green House Gas physics and that of Climate Change.
My submission, which is deliberately couched in layman's terms, requests the scrapping of all Methane emissions targets.
My reasoning is quite simple
• No one has been able to actually translate ruminant methane emissions into warming effect, at least not to a quantum that is measurable or in anything other than a model. The only answer I can find is from Dr David Frame who appears to be NZ leading authority on the subject and his estimate is that since 1850 NZ ruminants might be responsible for 1 ten millionth of a degree C per year of warming and going forward from now maybe 1 four millionth of a degree C per year. Think about that...it is totally insignificant.
• We know full well, and it is not disputed, that grass fed ruminants, as we have in NZ, are only cycling C02 and methane, it is the carbon cycle, it is neutral and should need no explanation to people of your apparent understanding.
• The above two points are merely common sense reasons that methane targets should be scrapped completely - The scientific reason lies in the latest un refuted science which clearly shows that in the context of the real life atmosphere it is impossible for even a doubling of methane to cause more than a miniscule fraction of increased warming owing to the overwhelming effect of infrared radiation absorption by water vapour, the overwhelmingly dominant role of which, as a green house gas, is of course mischievously avoided in the narrative that the public are given.
The proof that the work of Dr Will Happer and William Van Wijngaarden is correct, lies in the fact that their calculations almost perfectly match the reality of the widely available relevant satellite data.
Compare that to the ever-changing climate models that have consistently failed to predict any climate trends either future or past.
That should be the end of the story but there are other reasons to scrap these targets.
• Economic reasons: The Government and agriculture industry bodies have calculated the loss of production required to meet the current targets to be in the order of 20% from sheep and beef and 5-7% from dairy. These numbers would bring the NZ economy to its knees ... for what?? 4 millionths of a degree C warming per year?
• No sane person could advocate for that outcome.
• A 2022 RBNZ banking survey revealed that in the opinion of the trading banks, with the current emissions targets driving the price of carbon, at a carbon price of $50 there would be 8% dairy farmers unviable and 30% of sheep and beef. We are at $50 now!!
• The Climate Change Commission has the opportunity to restore this situation by scrapping the emissions targets completely - Anything less and it is clear who will be responsible for the inevitable collapse of the NZ economy.
• I utterly reject the notion that has been proposed for NZ to go even harder on emissions reductions if other countries are not pulling their weight, that is insanity beyond comprehension.
• NZ is a nation of leaders, now is your chance to show leadership. While other countries are modifying the rumens of their animals, feeding carcinogenic seaweed mixtures to cows, vaccinating and jamming bolus's down their throats (all practices shunned by consumers) NZ has spent millions developing and promoting 'Taste Pure Nature' with our pasture raised beef & lamb - this is leadership, why would we follow others back down a path of chemicals and additives when the proof is there that methane is not a problem.
• Last word to one of New Zealand's great leaders, the late Dr Jock Allison, M.Agr. Sc.Ph.D, ONZM, FNZIPIM, he has been described as having contributed more to NZ agriculture than any other individual. A man of immense integrity and a sound critical thinker who most certainly could not be compromised.
Jock said.." The whole thing is a scam, just say NO"
He would want you to watch this and look at yourselves in the mirror
Climate – the Movie (climatethemovie.net)
Thank you for considering my submission
Hamish de Lautour