Submission to the Climate Change Commission, DA

Our next CCC submission is from Methane Science Accord member and scientist, Deborah Alexander.

The original submission had a lot of diagrams; here is the abridged version.

My background includes a Degree of Agriculture (Hons) from Massey University. I have been employed within the agricultural industry, and have extensively researched agricultural greenhouse gases. My research also includes the greenhouse gas effect, sea-level rise, Artic and Antarctica, and many other associated areas. The subject of Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change is an extensive topic and I could happily present and expand on many related topics. I have, however, chosen to limit my submission to just three parts: 

A. Ruminant Methane Emissions: A More Complete View 

B. Methane’s contribution to Greenhouse Warming 

C. Suggested guidelines for reviewing greenhouse gas targets.

Ruminant Methane Emissions:
A More Complete View

Everyone knows ruminants, cows/sheep/goats/giraffes/deer emit methane.
Nature is always more complex than a singular fact.

1. Methane is only emitted if animals eat grass, that grew by absorbing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and water (H2O). Methane breaks back down to CO2 and H2O – It is circular. “It appears to assume that the methane emissions from dairy and meat count, but they do not because they come from carbon dioxide that was already in the atmosphere and was taken up by grass in photosynthesis. Any methane decays on a decade timescale back to carbon dioxide. It is circular.” Dr Kevin Trenberth IPCC scientist. 

2. Grass utilises more CO2 in growth and soil carbon sequestration than is eaten by ruminants, thus New Zealand pastures are a net absorption/sequestration of greenhouse gases. 

3. Ruminant methane emitted is also a very small proportion of the CO2/carbon that is ingested. This is due to the fact that the majority of that carbon is utilised to grow the animal, have progeny, and produce high quality food i.e. milk, meat, and fibre and hides. Thus, ruminants are a net sequester and exporter of captured CO2. They are a conduit, not an end point of the carbon cycle. New Zealand pasture grown food is a net absorption/sequestration of greenhouse gases 

4. Humans ingest the food produced (captured CO2). This process, again utilises the majority of that (captured CO2) to grow and multiply. If net sequestration is the aim, then this is clearly achieved. 

5. Summary: A small amount of ruminant methane can only be emitted if a considerable quantity of CO2 has been utilised by growing pasture that feeds our growing ruminants that results in high quality proteins that grows us! We should look at a more complete view: New Zealand’s pasture-based production is a net Greenhouse Gas sink – removing more greenhouse gases than emitting. Then consider providing accurate measurements of the cooling occurring!

Measuring Methane’s warming effect:

• Global Warming Potential (GWP):

To date the promoted warming of methane has been a GWP of 28 x CO2. We have known for a long time that this figure is overstated and now the stated science is catching up but this has not flowed through to policy settings. Firstly, GWP is a misunderstood mathematical calculation that actually means any ongoing increase in methane would have 28 times the warming of the same increase in CO2. It did not mean methane could warm 28 time the warming of CO2. CO2 is approx. 25% of all warming and Methane approx. 1%. The main Greenhouse Gas is water vapour. Secondly, methane is only increasing at a one three hundredth fraction of the rate of CO2, and Thirdly, CO2 is now effectively saturated and can contribute little more to any warming. Thus, even if the overstated GWP of 28 was used then 28 times basically little warming is still little warming. Can the CCC provide this figure? 

• IPCC AR6 p1016, Chapter 7, of the Working Group 1, “The Physical Science Report’’ has clearly stated that “expressing methane emissions as CO2 equivalent of 28, overstates the effect on global surface temperature by a factor of 3-4”. Therefore, all the targets should be reduced by this. This reduction has not been applied. New Zealand Agricultural emissions could drop by up to a quarter.

Suggested guidelines for reviewing greenhouse gas targets

1. Utilise the Latest Science Review a broad range of papers; including Dr Kevin Trenberth, Prof David Coe et al,Van Wijngaaden and Happer, Valentina Zharkova, Ned Nikolov, Ph.D. and many more. Also, IPCC AR6 actual working papers not the summary. 

• Climate Policies should be Scientifically based on empirical scientific evidence and if models are used then they should only be used if they align with actual data, and measurements. 

• The natural and anthropogenic (manmade) contributions must be quantified. 

• Include the latest (IPCC AR6 and later) scientific evidence in any Agricultural Greenhouse gases (GHG) policy and discard any past scientific IPCC data that no longer is applicable i.e. RCP 8.5 and GWP. 

2. Globally Responsible; Do not reduce any food production that would result in global emissions leakage, or threaten food production volumes. (Paris Accord article 2b) 

3. Warming Focus Base targets only on the required “no additional warming” 

• Quantify actual warming of the actual circular system, and not just methane being emitted. 

• Latest science to determine what each greenhouse gas has contributed to warming, and what warming would result if levels increase or fall. This needs to be within the IPCC’s defined coupled non-linear chaotic system which is climate and assess all the climatic factors/drivers. 

4. Sequestration: 

Some countries include on farm grass sequestration – we need an international standard or we shoot ourselves in the foot. 

5. Accurate Measurement and Cost/Benefit Analysis • Must be able to accurately measure emissions before imposing a tax. Can’t measure = Not fair to Tax. 

• Determine if GWP, GWP100 or GWP*, or other measurements are robust and accurate measurement. 

• Professor Dave Frame calculated that over the last 150 years NZ farmers have been responsible for shifting temperature by 1 one thousandth °C/100 years or 1 ten-millionth of a degree C per year. His current prediction of 4 millionth degree C per year … NZ ruminant numbers have fallen, animals’ methane output per kg of food is the lowest in the world. 

• Quantify the actual quantifiable cost benefit that is derived from the different proposed climate policies that compete for funds to ensure effective use of funds. 

• Identify the warming effects that each of these projects have and quantify the change if funds are applied. Only undertake cost effective projects. 

• Consider mitigation steps as an alternative option if cost benefits are not effective. 

6. Overseas Trading Partner:

Only introduce ruminant methane taxing or restrictions if our main trading partners adopt equivalent restrictions. 

7. Recognise New Zealand’s Strengths: 

• Amongst lowest greenhouse gas / kg food production. 

• New Zealand contributes less than 0.2% of global greenhouse emissions. 

• Agriculture is a considerable contribution to New Zealand’s GDP. 

• New Zealand’s pasture-based production of high-quality food is a net sink. 

8. Sustainability: 

• Sustainably meet the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet theirs, based on three main pillars environmental (planet), social (people), and economic (profit). 

• Undertake a cost analysis of warming benefit / cost to determine adaptation or mitigation options, and apply the Law of Sustainability If it is not economically sustainable, it is not sustainable.

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